CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-06-20T17:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-06-20T17:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25642/-1
CME Note: Large CME visible to the East in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is the X1.1 class flare from AR13341 peaking at 2023-06-20T17:09Z associated with a widespread EUV wave from the Eastern side of the disk towards the central meridian of the Earth-facing disk (best seen in SDO/AIA 211 and 193), as well as dimming (visible in SDO/AIA 193) directed towards the NW of the source location. A post-eruptive arcade follows the eruption which is best seen in SDO/AIA 171 starting around 2023-06-20T17:45Z. From Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS: There is an arrival of HSS on June 23. I doubt that we see a CME arrival in late June 24. The field components look similar (especially B_y) before and after the approximated arrival. The higher magnetic field strength can occur due to some form of compression (seems like the average speed in this interval is higher than the previous).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-06-23T12:35Z (-11.02h, +14.4h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2023/06/20 17:20Z Plane of Sky 1: 22:30Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE direction; Note: Possible CH HSS Influence Plane of Sky 2: 03:20Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW direction POS Difference: 4:50 POS Midpoint: 00:55Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:35 Numeric View/Impact Type: 0Lead Time: 58.78 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-06-21T01:48Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy